When John Q. Smoltz getting his 3,000th strikeout last night, the Braves broadcaster predicted both the ball and the ball thrower would one day end up in Cooperstown. I agree with the man, of course, but it made me think about which current players that could be said about? Let's discuss the contenders and pretenders, shall we? I'm going to list everyone who I think a case could possibly be made for, but some/many won't end up making the cut. Also, young players like Sizemore, Hanley Ramirez and the like aren't going to be here, they've got far too long to go.
AL CANDIDATES
EAST
Boston: Manny Ramirez, Curt Schilling, David Ortiz
New York: Alex Rodriguez, Mariano Rivera, Derek Jeter, Mike Mussina, Jorge Posada
Toronto: Frank Thomas
Baltimore: None
Tampa: None
The guarantees on this list are Manny, A-Rod, Rivera, Schilling and Jeter. Regardless of one's opinion of Schilling the man or Schilling the character (or if you think there is even a difference betwixt the two), you can't argue with his contributions to the history of baseball over his career, let alone his stats. Ortiz right now is a weak maybe, and will need at least three more .300-40-100 seasons to even be in the discussion. Mussina, if you ask me, has never done anything to merit induction, as being consistently good (never truly great, mind you) over a reasonably long chunk of time just doesn't do it for me personally, but I would be surprised to see him kept out. Thomas is a no-brainer, and I think we can pretty much be certain he won't wear a Blue Jays cap on his plaque. Posada may come as a surprise to some, but I think it's much harder to come up with reasons to keep him out than to put him in. He's been the premiere offensive catcher in the AL for the better part of a decade, is an exceptionally underrated defensive player and receiver, and by the time he is done his career numbers will meet or better the likes of Fisk, Campy and several other backstops in the Hall.
Yes, that's right, I picked four Yankees and two Sox, five Yankees if you count my grudging acceptance of Mussina. I'm nothing if not magnanimous.
AL CENTRAL
Indians: None
White Sox: Jim Thome
Tigers: Gary Sheffield
Royals: None
Twins: None
We're starting to dry up here. Anyway, both Thome and Sheffield are pretty much slam-dunks. I can imagine Sheffield will get some blow-back from his rather, shall we say, Belle-ish personality, but he's well into his second decade of being one of the most feared batters in the majors and there's no on-paper reason to keep him out. Thome was guaranteed induction when he hit his 500th, because between that and being the (albeit meaningless) all-time leader in playoff HRs he has the massive stats that voters and the public love.
EDIT: I left out Pudge Rodriguez. Personally I think it's patently unfair that he has been given a complete, 100% pass on the steroid issue despite patently obvious and extreme physical and statistical shrinkage in the post-BALCO era. Shouldn't we look askance at his stats and, honestly, his one extreme statistical outlier of an "MVP" season?)
AL WEST
Angels: Vladimir Guerrero, Frankie Rodriguez
Athletics: None
Mariners: Ichiro
Rangers: None
Well, this one will be easy. Vladimir, were he to choke and die tonight (on a sweet, sweet piece of yucca) would be borderline with his achievements to date - and he's only 31. By the time he's done he will be a no-brainer. Closers are always borderline by definition, and K-Rod will have to consistently produce for the rest of his career (see: Rivera, Mariano) to be considered, but of all the current generation of closers, he's probably at the top. Ichiro deserves to be elected about seven times.
NL EAST
New York: Pedro Martinez, Johan Santana, Billy Wagner
Philadelphia: None
Washington: None
Floreda: None
Atlanta: Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, Chipper Jones
Since Petey on pure talent is the best pitcher of this generation and absolutely dominated the game for six/seven years, I can't imagine anyone could possibly argue against him. Santana is another story, to be honest. He has clearly been the best pitcher in baseball over the last three years, but will need to continue dominating for at least that length of time again - he only has 94 wins through age 29. Even if we ignore the 300-win plateau as unreachable in today's era, he will need to hit at least 200 to guarantee it for me. Wagner has no shot - he's the very definition of A Pretty Good Closer. Closers don't make it unless they're great. Glavine and Smoltz are clearly in. Jones is going to be an interesting case. Stats and accolades alone do not get him into the Hall, but as a top-notch citizen and the epitome of team player he may get pushed over the top. He certainly has been a top hitter for a long time.
NL CENTRAL
Chicago: None
St. Louis: Albert Pujols
Milwaukee: None
Pittsburgh: Entire Roster, clearly
Houston: None
Cincinnati: Junior Griffey
Ugh. I hate that Pujols is the only non-automatic person that I have to talk about, because I don't care for him. I can't understand how he was appointed as America's Drug-Free Superstar from the moment he entered the league, and I don't feel he is everything that the world says he is. That being said, if he keeps up at this pace for even five more years he is all but guaranteed election. Griffey? Yeah, he's in.
NL WEST
San Diego: Greg Maddux, Trevor Hoffman
Los Angeles: None
Arizona: None
Colorado: None
San Francisco: N/A (only major-league caliber players are considered for HOF induction)
Honestly, it took me a minute to remember what the fifth team in the NL West is, that's how bad the Giants are. Anyway, Maddux is fantastic and very well could go on winning 12-14 games for the next five years. Hoffman? Well. He's going to get in, that's for certain. 500 saves still stands as a magic number in this game. Without that number, Hoffman is little more than a exceptionally durable closer on an occasionally good team who failed miserably in every single (rare) pressure situation he was placed in. But maybe that's just me.
EDIT: I forgot Jeff Kent. I could really care less about him, and he's so hated by the media that he may have a bit of a Rice-ish sojurn along the way, but he's a simple "yes" at the very least.
Did I forget anyone?
